The ECMWF model is again rather bullish for the last few runs and the last 12Z run showed it getting into "moster" catagory but i am skeptical about that model expecaly for the Mid Atlantic area the other models are not yet on board yet the Euro has missed the mark on the Mid Atlantic but has scored big with the New England Area so based on that i am giving some creedance to the ECMWF model and as allways the GFS is not really on board yet but the disclamer is that its about 7 to 10 days out and things could change. The Euro is just one model and there are others. I will watch the models as things start going along durring the week to see what and when they come into better agreement the snow in November before Thanksgiving was a bonus for our area but The Euro is saying it could be a snow event from the higher Elivations to the coast Plenty of time to watch that and see what happens or if it happens thats the other thing.
I will be watching it and posting more about it as models come out the next week.
in the mean time we are socked in with clouds in the mid atlantic area due to a temperature Inversion at 2,300 feet it wont be scowerd out till tuesday or wednessday when a cold front comes through and drops our temperatures back to 40s to 50 for DC and 30s to 40s in areas higher ellivations. but we shall see about the stome on the 20th through the 22nd however there is a indication of things going to a more favorable setting enviromental wise to suport a sustatend cold snap in the east and such a example of that is the EPO East Pacific Ossilation is starting to go Negative and the NAO North Atlantic Ossilation is also trending toward the Negative phase the Artic ossilation is also trending negative that means there are blocks setting up in alaska and california will dry out with a ridge and that means a cross polar flow for the eastern 3rd of the country and clold temperatures. so enjoy this mild weather while it lasts because we will be back in the cold again.
There is light at the end of the tunnel snow lovers for late december and in January and Feburary as well. just got to weather this warm spell so to speek.
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