If Anyone got the wrong Idea sorry about that.
The models are now showing a weaker storm and more to the south however there is still a chance for some precip of the wintery varity though it may be on the light side some models hint at.
On another note
the storm that going to affect The Mid Atlantic area is still out side range of sample stations that the models rely on so things could change when the storm comes ashore we shall see. it takes a professional to stand by what he/she sees and not to waver the forecasts based on what the models say that to me is just as bad as Wish-Casting it confuses the general public. though the Out to sea solution i dont agree with but i am not takeing it of the table just yet i want to see what models say when the storm comes on shore and there are better sampling stations to feed data into the models.
then we will have a better handle on what the storm will be like for the Mid Atlantic Area as it comes across the United States.
The Models do they best they can with what little data they have when the storms are off the west coast before they come on shore so they will be all over the place its what i expect at this time when the storm comes ashore then we will get a better sampling and things should start falttening out model wise so we shall see.
i have seen that and agree with a Meteorologist that said " any one can be a meteorologist if you just use the model data a. a big event or b a non event " but it takes a professonal to understand what they are seeing on the models" and he also says " Models do not make the weather they do their best to model it" (Me)" and provide solutions as to what it may do" so again please dont think you know what you see just know as i have said before its Guidance weather and mother nature may not do what the models say and that's always a possiblity. I am Still Entertaining the 1st possible track but on a much weaker scale and maybe a tad farther off the coast but i am not giving in to the 2nd the out to sea solution.
this is a nightmare to forecast for because its just now coming on shore so like i allway's stress stay tuned and that things change so don't take the models as verbatum they are Just GUIDANCE.
thanks :-)
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
Monday, December 15, 2014
storm for the 21st through the 23rd
The models are starting to come togeather in better agreement though there is 1 of 2 possiblities is eather its.
01. Out to sea And minimal effects for Mid Atlantic
02. up the coast and maybe snow for parts of the Mid Atlanitic
those are the the 2 sennerios that are still in play the models havent hit on a solution yet its still 6 days out and things can change but this storm will mark a pattern change to the colder side of things this warm 55 degree weather will come to an end its rare for warmpth to last long in december since its technicaly a cold month .
I am not leaning toward any one seniriro at this time the models are saying that there will be a coastal storm and weather the Mid Atlantic gets rain or snow is another matter the 13 KM reslution of the GFS that is set to come on line in January shows we may get some snow north and west while the 23KM resolution shows 2 storm centers forming and strining out the energy and well thats kinda far fetched the latest model runs and the run of the 13 KM GFS model the experimental are in faily good agreement to a coastal storm any snow maps doing snow fall accumulations dont regard them with any seriousness its stil to far to call maybe around 3 days its time to start seeing what could happen with snow or rain totals.
I am not going to hazzard a guess in my last post i have said that confenidence was Low Low to Low-Medium now i would say its Medium since models are coming togeather just exact timing and location just need to be determined and that wont occur till closer to the event it also need to be determind as to what the players will do a strong High over western Hudson bay and the developing low will the high win out and push it out to sea or will the high be just to the south of hudson bay and allow for it to come up the coast those are the two things that need to come togeather and also those players will determin the strenth of the low pressure area. too
anyway persons in the Mid Atlantic should watch the potental progress of this storm and how it unfolds the next 6 days till the storm and see what happens currrently there is a cold front that will come through tuesday night and drop our temperatures back to below normal temperatures. now weather the air is cold enough to suport snow in all levels is the question and the Power of the storm and the high pressure as well so the players are set just need to see how they interact.
01. Out to sea And minimal effects for Mid Atlantic
02. up the coast and maybe snow for parts of the Mid Atlanitic
those are the the 2 sennerios that are still in play the models havent hit on a solution yet its still 6 days out and things can change but this storm will mark a pattern change to the colder side of things this warm 55 degree weather will come to an end its rare for warmpth to last long in december since its technicaly a cold month .
I am not leaning toward any one seniriro at this time the models are saying that there will be a coastal storm and weather the Mid Atlantic gets rain or snow is another matter the 13 KM reslution of the GFS that is set to come on line in January shows we may get some snow north and west while the 23KM resolution shows 2 storm centers forming and strining out the energy and well thats kinda far fetched the latest model runs and the run of the 13 KM GFS model the experimental are in faily good agreement to a coastal storm any snow maps doing snow fall accumulations dont regard them with any seriousness its stil to far to call maybe around 3 days its time to start seeing what could happen with snow or rain totals.
I am not going to hazzard a guess in my last post i have said that confenidence was Low Low to Low-Medium now i would say its Medium since models are coming togeather just exact timing and location just need to be determined and that wont occur till closer to the event it also need to be determind as to what the players will do a strong High over western Hudson bay and the developing low will the high win out and push it out to sea or will the high be just to the south of hudson bay and allow for it to come up the coast those are the two things that need to come togeather and also those players will determin the strenth of the low pressure area. too
anyway persons in the Mid Atlantic should watch the potental progress of this storm and how it unfolds the next 6 days till the storm and see what happens currrently there is a cold front that will come through tuesday night and drop our temperatures back to below normal temperatures. now weather the air is cold enough to suport snow in all levels is the question and the Power of the storm and the high pressure as well so the players are set just need to see how they interact.
Sunday, December 14, 2014
Possible storm 12/20 to 12/22
The ECMWF model is again rather bullish for the last few runs and the last 12Z run showed it getting into "moster" catagory but i am skeptical about that model expecaly for the Mid Atlantic area the other models are not yet on board yet the Euro has missed the mark on the Mid Atlantic but has scored big with the New England Area so based on that i am giving some creedance to the ECMWF model and as allways the GFS is not really on board yet but the disclamer is that its about 7 to 10 days out and things could change. The Euro is just one model and there are others. I will watch the models as things start going along durring the week to see what and when they come into better agreement the snow in November before Thanksgiving was a bonus for our area but The Euro is saying it could be a snow event from the higher Elivations to the coast Plenty of time to watch that and see what happens or if it happens thats the other thing.
I will be watching it and posting more about it as models come out the next week.
in the mean time we are socked in with clouds in the mid atlantic area due to a temperature Inversion at 2,300 feet it wont be scowerd out till tuesday or wednessday when a cold front comes through and drops our temperatures back to 40s to 50 for DC and 30s to 40s in areas higher ellivations. but we shall see about the stome on the 20th through the 22nd however there is a indication of things going to a more favorable setting enviromental wise to suport a sustatend cold snap in the east and such a example of that is the EPO East Pacific Ossilation is starting to go Negative and the NAO North Atlantic Ossilation is also trending toward the Negative phase the Artic ossilation is also trending negative that means there are blocks setting up in alaska and california will dry out with a ridge and that means a cross polar flow for the eastern 3rd of the country and clold temperatures. so enjoy this mild weather while it lasts because we will be back in the cold again.
There is light at the end of the tunnel snow lovers for late december and in January and Feburary as well. just got to weather this warm spell so to speek.
I will be watching it and posting more about it as models come out the next week.
in the mean time we are socked in with clouds in the mid atlantic area due to a temperature Inversion at 2,300 feet it wont be scowerd out till tuesday or wednessday when a cold front comes through and drops our temperatures back to 40s to 50 for DC and 30s to 40s in areas higher ellivations. but we shall see about the stome on the 20th through the 22nd however there is a indication of things going to a more favorable setting enviromental wise to suport a sustatend cold snap in the east and such a example of that is the EPO East Pacific Ossilation is starting to go Negative and the NAO North Atlantic Ossilation is also trending toward the Negative phase the Artic ossilation is also trending negative that means there are blocks setting up in alaska and california will dry out with a ridge and that means a cross polar flow for the eastern 3rd of the country and clold temperatures. so enjoy this mild weather while it lasts because we will be back in the cold again.
There is light at the end of the tunnel snow lovers for late december and in January and Feburary as well. just got to weather this warm spell so to speek.
Friday, December 12, 2014
Models and WIsh Casting
I am seeing a lot of wish casting and taking the models as verbatam 10 or more days out i cant enphsize enough that MODELS ARE GUIDANCE not a forecast set in stone things can change between the time the guidance is issued and the time of the event the storms of December 20th and 21st right now the atmosphere looks to be to warm the highs in the next few days will be in the mid 40s to lower 50s maybe by sunday some mid 50s to around 60s that clearly doesnt suport snow its to warm for snow if that holds we are only on friday the 12th of December and thats still a while week away or more the 21st is the winter solstice so yeah still 7 to 10 days away the Euro is right now the Out lair but out of respect for it and how it has performed last year and with superstorm sandy i am saying dont discredit it as yet just take it with a grain of salt by that i mean cautiously and with a healthy dose of Skeptizum the other models are not on board as yet but you know the others have been known to change their tune the ECMWF model is on the average the more bullish model sometimes it pans out some times not
The Pre-Thanksgiving storm didnt pan out for the ECMWF model it was bullish the whole way through for the mid atlantic but we excaped with only 1 to 2 inches of snow so thats a strike agenst the ECMWF model but over all the performance has been acceptible. we still have the begining of Hanukkah on the 16th to get through before any words can be said with certinty we still have about 10 days out so i say again this model is GUIDANCE ONLY do not take it as verbatim its GUIDANCE and states only one possiblity I defer to the Weather service and to those who have actcess to see the models i have to establish a WxBell LLC acct to view those models but i will do that when i can so for now i am defering to those that see them. and Stressing ITS ONLY GUIDANCE NOT SET IN STONE only a possible solution this far out 10 days out its only a possible soultion one of many other that the models are showing at this time
thank you
The Pre-Thanksgiving storm didnt pan out for the ECMWF model it was bullish the whole way through for the mid atlantic but we excaped with only 1 to 2 inches of snow so thats a strike agenst the ECMWF model but over all the performance has been acceptible. we still have the begining of Hanukkah on the 16th to get through before any words can be said with certinty we still have about 10 days out so i say again this model is GUIDANCE ONLY do not take it as verbatim its GUIDANCE and states only one possiblity I defer to the Weather service and to those who have actcess to see the models i have to establish a WxBell LLC acct to view those models but i will do that when i can so for now i am defering to those that see them. and Stressing ITS ONLY GUIDANCE NOT SET IN STONE only a possible solution this far out 10 days out its only a possible soultion one of many other that the models are showing at this time
thank you
Monday, November 10, 2014
Polar Vortex
I am not one to call the Polar Vortex a True Vortex in the deffenetion of the term but i will say to be more spacfic and more Technicaly accurate its the Polar Jet Stream that keeps the Air locked up in the artic and big disturbances can cause it to buckle and casuse deep troughs to develop. and that plunges the cold air south out of the polar Reagion into Canada and into the United States but Polar Vortex it to me is a miss Nomer why because its not a true vortex in the word its the Polar Jet stream or the Artic Jet i will liken it to the Antartic Jet that sorounds Antartica and keeps the cold air locked over the continent not allowing it to spill northward but in southen hemisphere winters the Antartic Jet buckles North ward and brings colder air from the antartic to places like Australia and southern south america and south affrica . In Southern Summer its bottled up over the continent but in the southern winter it develops troughs and becomes wavy and that pulls cold air northward from the south pole and brings snow to the southern contnents.
to me the word " Vortex" is a missnomer its not a true " vortex" in the sense of the word a meteorological Vortex Is a tornado that is a Vortex in the Deffenition of the word I think the word Vortex is miss used when it refers to the polar Jet that protects the artic reagon in summer and year around and the dips in the polar jet are what are responsible for our cold spells and thats what brought us the snow storms last year and depending on the polar Jet again it all depends on the Polar jet if we get more snow storms. there are 2 Air masses Continental Polar and Maritime Polar the maritime polar is born over the pacific ocean and can produce Highs in the 50's and 60's while the Continental polar is born over land like Russia or frozen areas of the artic and that can produce snow storms and be quite cold highs offen below zero most of the time depending on if your in the core of the high pressure.
to me the word " Vortex" is a missnomer its not a true " vortex" in the sense of the word a meteorological Vortex Is a tornado that is a Vortex in the Deffenition of the word I think the word Vortex is miss used when it refers to the polar Jet that protects the artic reagon in summer and year around and the dips in the polar jet are what are responsible for our cold spells and thats what brought us the snow storms last year and depending on the polar Jet again it all depends on the Polar jet if we get more snow storms. there are 2 Air masses Continental Polar and Maritime Polar the maritime polar is born over the pacific ocean and can produce Highs in the 50's and 60's while the Continental polar is born over land like Russia or frozen areas of the artic and that can produce snow storms and be quite cold highs offen below zero most of the time depending on if your in the core of the high pressure.
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Winter Storm Warning update
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 149 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014 MDZ004>007-009>011-VAZ027>031-040-042-501-WVZ050-052-053-055-502- 030300- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0008.140303T0000Z-140303T2300Z/ FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-BERKELEY- JEFFERSON-HARDY-EASTERN GRANT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL... WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN... MOOREFIELD...PETERSBURG 149 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE TENTH INCH OF ICE...FOLLOWED BY 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...RAIN CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING THEN BECOMES HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S THIS EVENING...THEN DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO ICE AND SNOW THROUGH MONDAY. BOTH THE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON RUSH HOURS WILL BE AFFECTED. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COMBINATION OF ICE AND HEAVY SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS WINTER STORM WARNING IS FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN AND MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
Winter Storm Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1104 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014 MDZ004>007-009>011-VAZ027>031-040-042-501-WVZ050-052-053-055-502- 030015- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0008.140303T0000Z-140303T2300Z/ FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD- SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-BERKELEY- JEFFERSON-HARDY-EASTERN GRANT- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL... WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN... MOOREFIELD...PETERSBURG 1104 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE TENTH INCH ICE...THEN 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...RAIN CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING THEN BECOMES HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. * TEMPERATURES...LOWER 30S THIS EVENING TO THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT...THEN LOWER 20S THROUGH MONDAY. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * IMPACTS...VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THIS EVENING TROUGH MONDAY... AFFECTING BOTH THE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON PEAK COMMUTE HOURS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COMBINATION OF ICE AND HEAVY SNOW. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THIS WINTER STORM WARNING IS FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN AND MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.
Saturday, March 1, 2014
Winter Storm Watch update
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 959 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014 DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ025>027-029>031-036>040-042- 050>057-501>504-WVZ505-506-012300- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0005.140303T0500Z-140303T2300Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE- MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA... BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...STAUNTON... WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE... LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX... ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON... HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 959 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. * TIMING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LOOKS TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MONDAY. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY FROM ICY ROADS...BECOMING SNOWY FOR MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 323 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014 DCZ001-MDZ009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ025>027-029>031-036>040-042- 050>057-501>504-WVZ505-506-011630- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0005.140303T0500Z-140303T2300Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE- MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA... BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...STAUNTON... WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...FRONT ROYAL...CHARLOTTESVILLE... LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX... ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG...WARRENTON... HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 323 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN FOLLOWED BY FIVE OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. * TIMING...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LOOKS TO BEGIN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MONDAY. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * IMPACTS...POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY FROM ICY ROADS...BECOMING SNOWY FOR MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Thursday, February 27, 2014
Why weather is so tricky for Washington DC
well weather i s tricky for the mid atlantic area because there are so many factors and as we meteorologists say sometimes when it comes to winter storms their is a high bust potental thats why in most cases the National Weather Service in sterling VA has been so lazy to issue winter storm watches and or warnings for snow storms and ice storms because things could change here in the mid atlantic area the Atmospheric dynamic and there is a varying span of elevations between the bay and shore and the mountains anywhere from Sea Level to 4000 ft in the mountains so Washington proper and points at lower elevations could see rain and some mixing in times of winter storms and points north and west of The city could see cold air and more wintery precipitation a good example of this was around the time of the vernal equinox last year we got 4.5 inches of heavy wet snow and Washington DC had spring rain storm that was purely driven by elevations above sea level and anywhere north and west of the cities of washington dc and baltimore got rain
We also have the I-95 Fall line where the warm air advances to and the cold air north and west of there damns agenst the mountains. the "FALL LINE" just means thats where the Rain/Snow battle line sets up and doesnt advance any farther than that north and west that keeps all the northern suburbs for montgomery county north and west in the colder air and more snow or sleet or feezing rain. while points south and east around the tidal potomac and Pax River NAS get all rain or a mix of rain and sleet Montgomery county gets snow and or sleet and snow mixed or snow sleet and freezing rain but sometimes it gets a cold rain too but thats if the rain snow line pushes farther west and north than the I-95 line .
We also have the I-95 Fall line where the warm air advances to and the cold air north and west of there damns agenst the mountains. the "FALL LINE" just means thats where the Rain/Snow battle line sets up and doesnt advance any farther than that north and west that keeps all the northern suburbs for montgomery county north and west in the colder air and more snow or sleet or feezing rain. while points south and east around the tidal potomac and Pax River NAS get all rain or a mix of rain and sleet Montgomery county gets snow and or sleet and snow mixed or snow sleet and freezing rain but sometimes it gets a cold rain too but thats if the rain snow line pushes farther west and north than the I-95 line .
Monday, February 24, 2014
New Model
I have been working on a new Model a model that combines the best of Geographical information Systems (GIS) and the GFS and the other models for forecasting for the Washington Dc metro area it has the topographic maps of the US Geological Survey and the best of the models used in weather Forecasting the Canadian and the ECMWF and the GFS and the NAM the best of all of those models its called the
Geographical Weather Forecast System or GWFS its been designed to take in to account the Geographical differnces between Washington Dc and places like Rockville Maryland Rockville is higher in elevation that Washington DC is and so is the eastern shore and lower central maryland it takes that into acct and can forecast winter storms with fairly acurate relyablity maybe 85 to 95% of the time it can but it sometimes goes back to its GFS Roots and underperforms but thats because its a GFS based model blend of all the other models out there and the GFS.
anyway the model was developed by me it took a year to develop and it took another year of in operational testing to make shure it was ready to go to National weather service offices through out the country and hopefully it will help improve Forecasting in all the areas its in operation 2014 is the first year its in full operation and so far its had a decent sucess rate with winter storms from time to time it goes back to its GFS roots but thats ok no numerical model is perfect so yeah the rest is complicated technical stuff.
Geographical Weather Forecast System or GWFS its been designed to take in to account the Geographical differnces between Washington Dc and places like Rockville Maryland Rockville is higher in elevation that Washington DC is and so is the eastern shore and lower central maryland it takes that into acct and can forecast winter storms with fairly acurate relyablity maybe 85 to 95% of the time it can but it sometimes goes back to its GFS Roots and underperforms but thats because its a GFS based model blend of all the other models out there and the GFS.
anyway the model was developed by me it took a year to develop and it took another year of in operational testing to make shure it was ready to go to National weather service offices through out the country and hopefully it will help improve Forecasting in all the areas its in operation 2014 is the first year its in full operation and so far its had a decent sucess rate with winter storms from time to time it goes back to its GFS roots but thats ok no numerical model is perfect so yeah the rest is complicated technical stuff.
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