WInter is not over yet

 This is a message to the trolls that say the winter is over that we should get spring and warm weather  01.  its January the middle of winter
 02. cold Waxes and Wains with the artic highs as they move
 03. warm ups are short  lived in january and febuary
 04. this is the dead of winter as they say

Though Meteorological WInter starts december 1st  its not till december 21st or so that astronomical winter starts.  june 1 is Meteorlogical summer . and such is the astronomical  there are is the spring and fall equinox's that mark the begining of astronomical spring and Astronomical fall  but the fall is really   September 1st at least Meteorological fall

 what we are getting in the mid atlantic is  freezing rain and according to some models the Freezing rain will hang on longer in the higher Elivations north and west of the cities of Washington and Baltimore  and they are at the greatest risk of getting a 1/10th of an inch to 1/4th of an inch  though at 1:24 pm Est The NWS sterling virginia  has not issued a witner advisory yet i expect they will  soon around the 2 pm or so confernce call with the Weather serivce office where i work and me we will coordinate a statement and any possible advisories at that time  the sounding  National Weather Service offices have issued Winter Weather advisories and Freezing rain advisories as well for the area around maryland and i dont know whats keeping Sterling From issuing a advisory  for the area i guess they want to wait till the afternoon confernce call  or if not that then the evening confernce call. we shall see what happens.  current temperature is  35.4 degrees pressure is  30.54 Falling highest pressure was 30.67 that is not a record i dont think we will have to see what the highest presssure was at National Airport and the 2 other airports before we determin if its a record or not it  was certinly high enough to cause aches and pains in weather sensative people like my self.

1:30 pm conditions

Sky  clear to partly cloudy
Visiblity 10 miles
Temperature 35
RH  32%
dewpoint  8
Winds SSW 185 degrees at  10 Mph gusting 18 Mph
Baromiter 30.54  and Falling

Current High at this time 36
Current low  this morning 10
Highest pressure 30.67


its not going to get much warmer than that i will post a map of where i think the best possiblity for iceing is going to be  tonight and tomarrow notice its above 100 Ft in elevation. This is the NAM model prediction where the  The ZR or Freezing Rain will hang on longer  Knowtice that the I-95 fall line is the classic boundery to the east of the northern suburbs and emediate northern and western suburbs  the ice will hang on a bit longer there som maybe a tenth  to a quarter  of an inch.


These maps just show the potental acceation of ice and you see that its along and west of I-95 corridor between I-95 and I-270 and montgomery county is right in that zone  its going to be from I-70 and I-83 and I-270 and that is the range  of the ice and the estern most extent is  I-95.

 The map below is NAM model showing what areas are going to be affect with ZR or Freezing rain. 

Models are provided by WxBell and we thank them for their help. in deseminating model data to the general public 

Update

If Anyone got  the wrong Idea sorry about that.

 The models are now showing a weaker storm and more to the south  however there is still a chance for some precip  of the wintery varity though it may be on the light side some models hint at.

On another note
the storm that going to affect  The Mid Atlantic area is still out side range of sample stations that the models rely on so things could change when  the storm comes ashore  we shall see.  it takes a professional to stand by what he/she sees and not to waver the forecasts based on what the models say that to me is just as bad as Wish-Casting  it confuses the general public. though the Out to sea solution i dont agree with but i am not takeing it of the table  just yet i want to see what models say when the storm comes on shore and there are better sampling stations to feed data into  the models.

then we will have a better handle on what the storm will be like for the Mid Atlantic Area  as it comes across the United States.

The Models do they best they can with what little data they have when the storms are off the west coast  before they come on shore so they will be all over the place its what i expect at this time when the storm comes ashore then we will get a better sampling and things should start falttening out model wise so we shall see.

i have seen that and agree with  a Meteorologist that said " any one can be a meteorologist if you just use the model data a. a big event or b a non event " but it takes a professonal to understand what they are seeing  on the models"  and he also says " Models  do not make the weather they do their best to model it" (Me)" and provide solutions as to what it may do"  so again please dont think you know what you see just know as i have said before its Guidance  weather and mother nature may not do what the models say and that's always a possiblity.  I am Still Entertaining the 1st possible track but on a much weaker scale and maybe a tad  farther off the coast  but i am not giving in to the 2nd the out to sea solution.

this is a nightmare to forecast for because its just now coming on shore so like i allway's stress stay tuned and that things change so don't take the models as verbatum they are Just GUIDANCE.

thanks :-)

storm for the 21st through the 23rd

 The models are starting to come togeather in better agreement though there is 1 of 2 possiblities is eather its.

01. Out to sea And minimal effects for Mid Atlantic

02.  up the coast and maybe snow for parts of   the Mid Atlanitic

 those are the  the 2 sennerios that are still in play the models havent hit on a solution yet  its still  6 days out  and things can change but this storm will mark a pattern change to the colder side of things this warm 55 degree weather will come to an end its rare for warmpth to last long in december  since its technicaly a cold month .

I am not leaning toward any one seniriro  at this time the models are saying that there will be a coastal storm and weather the Mid Atlantic gets rain or snow is another matter the 13 KM reslution of the GFS that is set to come on line in January shows we may get some snow north and  west while the 23KM resolution shows 2 storm centers forming and strining out the energy and well thats kinda far fetched   the latest model runs and the run of the 13 KM GFS model the experimental are in faily good agreement to a coastal storm  any snow maps doing snow fall accumulations dont regard them with any seriousness its stil to far to call maybe around 3 days its time to start seeing what could happen with snow or rain totals.


 I am not going to hazzard a guess in my last post i have said that confenidence was Low Low to Low-Medium now i would say its Medium  since models are coming togeather  just exact timing and  location just need to be determined and that wont occur till closer to the event it also need to be determind as to what the players will do  a strong High over western Hudson bay and the developing low will the high win out and push it out to sea or will the high be just to the south of hudson bay and allow for it to come up the coast those are the two things that need to come togeather and also those players will determin the strenth of the low pressure area. too


 anyway persons in the Mid Atlantic should watch the potental progress of this storm and how it unfolds the next 6 days  till the storm and see what happens currrently  there is a cold front that will come through  tuesday night and drop our temperatures back to below normal temperatures. now weather the air is cold enough to suport snow in all levels is the question and the Power  of  the storm and the high pressure as well so the players are set just need to see how they interact.

Possible storm 12/20 to 12/22

 The ECMWF model is again rather bullish for the last few runs and the last 12Z run showed it getting into "moster"  catagory  but i am skeptical about that model expecaly for the Mid Atlantic area  the other models are not yet on board yet the Euro has missed the mark on the Mid Atlantic but has scored big with the New England Area  so based on that i am giving some creedance to the ECMWF  model and  as allways the GFS is not really on board yet  but the disclamer is that its about 7 to 10 days out and things could change.  The Euro is  just one model and there are others.  I will watch the models as things start going along durring the week  to see what and when they come into better agreement  the snow in November before Thanksgiving was a bonus for our area but  The Euro  is saying it could be a snow event from the higher Elivations to the coast  Plenty of time to watch that and see what happens or if it happens thats the other thing.

I will be watching it and posting  more about it as models come out the next week.
in the mean time we are socked in with clouds in the mid atlantic area  due to a temperature Inversion at 2,300 feet   it wont be scowerd out till tuesday or wednessday when  a cold front comes through and drops our temperatures back to 40s to 50 for DC  and 30s to 40s in areas higher ellivations.  but we shall see about the stome on the 20th through the 22nd  however there is a indication of things going to a more favorable setting enviromental wise to suport a sustatend  cold snap in the east and such a example of that is the EPO East Pacific Ossilation is starting to go Negative and the NAO North Atlantic Ossilation is also trending toward the Negative phase  the Artic ossilation is also trending negative that means there are blocks setting up  in alaska and california will dry out with a ridge and that means a cross polar flow for the eastern 3rd of the country and clold temperatures. so enjoy this mild weather while it lasts because we will be back in the cold again.



There is light at the end of the tunnel snow lovers  for late december and in January and Feburary as well. just got to weather this warm spell so to speek.

Models and WIsh Casting

 I am seeing a lot of wish casting and  taking the models as verbatam 10 or more days out i cant enphsize  enough that MODELS ARE GUIDANCE  not a forecast set in stone  things can change between the time the guidance is issued and the time of the event  the storms of December 20th and 21st  right now the atmosphere looks to be to warm the highs in the next few days will be in  the mid 40s to lower 50s maybe by sunday some mid 50s to around 60s that clearly doesnt suport snow its to warm for snow if that holds we are only on  friday the 12th of December and thats  still a while week away or more the 21st is the winter solstice so yeah still 7 to 10 days away  the Euro is right now the Out lair but  out of respect for it  and how it has performed last year and with superstorm sandy  i am saying dont discredit  it  as yet just  take it with a grain of salt by that i mean cautiously and with a healthy dose of Skeptizum  the other models are not on board as yet  but you know the others have been known to change their tune  the ECMWF model is  on the average the more bullish model sometimes it pans out some times not

 The Pre-Thanksgiving storm  didnt pan out for the ECMWF model it was bullish the whole way through for the mid atlantic but  we excaped with only 1 to 2 inches of snow  so thats a strike agenst the ECMWF model  but over all the performance has been acceptible. we still have the begining of Hanukkah on the 16th  to get through before any words can be said with certinty   we still have  about 10 days out  so i say again this model is GUIDANCE  ONLY  do not take it as verbatim its GUIDANCE  and states only one possiblity  I defer to the Weather service and to those who have actcess to see the models i have to establish a WxBell LLC acct to view those models but i will do that when i  can so for now i am defering to those that see them. and Stressing  ITS ONLY GUIDANCE NOT SET IN STONE  only  a possible solution this far out 10 days out its only a possible soultion one of many other that the models are showing at this time

thank you

Polar Vortex

 I am not one to  call the Polar Vortex a True Vortex in the deffenetion of the term  but i will say to be more spacfic and more Technicaly accurate  its the Polar Jet Stream  that keeps the Air locked up in the artic  and big disturbances  can cause it to buckle and  casuse deep troughs to develop. and that plunges the cold air south out of the polar Reagion into Canada and into the United States  but Polar Vortex it to me is a miss Nomer why because its not a true vortex in the word its  the Polar Jet stream or the Artic Jet  i will liken it to the  Antartic Jet that sorounds  Antartica  and keeps the cold air locked over the continent  not allowing it to spill northward   but in southen hemisphere winters the Antartic Jet buckles North ward and brings colder air from the antartic  to places like Australia  and  southern south america and south affrica .  In Southern Summer its bottled up over the continent  but in the southern winter it develops  troughs and becomes wavy and that pulls cold air northward from the south pole  and brings snow to  the southern contnents.

 to me the word " Vortex" is a missnomer  its not a true " vortex" in the sense of the word  a meteorological Vortex Is a tornado that is a Vortex in the Deffenition of the word  I think the word Vortex is miss used when it refers to the polar Jet that protects the artic reagon  in summer and year around and the dips in the polar jet are what are responsible for our cold spells  and thats what brought us the snow storms last year and depending on the polar Jet again it all depends on the Polar jet if we get more snow storms.  there are 2 Air masses  Continental Polar and Maritime Polar the maritime polar is born over the pacific ocean and can produce Highs in the 50's and 60's while the  Continental polar is born over land like Russia or frozen areas of the artic and that can produce snow storms  and be quite cold  highs offen below zero most of the time depending on if your in the core of  the high pressure.

Winter Storm Warning update

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
149 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

MDZ004>007-009>011-VAZ027>031-040-042-501-WVZ050-052-053-055-502-
030300-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0008.140303T0000Z-140303T2300Z/
FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-HAMPSHIRE-BERKELEY-
JEFFERSON-HARDY-EASTERN GRANT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER...
GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...
WASHINGTON...LEESBURG...WARRENTON...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...
MOOREFIELD...PETERSBURG
149 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM EST MONDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE TENTH INCH OF ICE...FOLLOWED BY 4 TO
  8 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...RAIN CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET FROM NORTH TO
  SOUTH THIS EVENING THEN BECOMES HEAVY SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S THIS EVENING...THEN
  DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS TO 25 MPH LATE TONIGHT AND
  MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO ICE AND SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.
  BOTH THE MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON RUSH HOURS WILL BE
  AFFECTED. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COMBINATION OF
  ICE AND HEAVY SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS WINTER STORM WARNING IS FOR HEAVY SNOW...SLEET...AND
FREEZING RAIN AND MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE AND SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT
WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.