Friday, December 12, 2014

Models and WIsh Casting

 I am seeing a lot of wish casting and  taking the models as verbatam 10 or more days out i cant enphsize  enough that MODELS ARE GUIDANCE  not a forecast set in stone  things can change between the time the guidance is issued and the time of the event  the storms of December 20th and 21st  right now the atmosphere looks to be to warm the highs in the next few days will be in  the mid 40s to lower 50s maybe by sunday some mid 50s to around 60s that clearly doesnt suport snow its to warm for snow if that holds we are only on  friday the 12th of December and thats  still a while week away or more the 21st is the winter solstice so yeah still 7 to 10 days away  the Euro is right now the Out lair but  out of respect for it  and how it has performed last year and with superstorm sandy  i am saying dont discredit  it  as yet just  take it with a grain of salt by that i mean cautiously and with a healthy dose of Skeptizum  the other models are not on board as yet  but you know the others have been known to change their tune  the ECMWF model is  on the average the more bullish model sometimes it pans out some times not

 The Pre-Thanksgiving storm  didnt pan out for the ECMWF model it was bullish the whole way through for the mid atlantic but  we excaped with only 1 to 2 inches of snow  so thats a strike agenst the ECMWF model  but over all the performance has been acceptible. we still have the begining of Hanukkah on the 16th  to get through before any words can be said with certinty   we still have  about 10 days out  so i say again this model is GUIDANCE  ONLY  do not take it as verbatim its GUIDANCE  and states only one possiblity  I defer to the Weather service and to those who have actcess to see the models i have to establish a WxBell LLC acct to view those models but i will do that when i  can so for now i am defering to those that see them. and Stressing  ITS ONLY GUIDANCE NOT SET IN STONE  only  a possible solution this far out 10 days out its only a possible soultion one of many other that the models are showing at this time

thank you

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